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Elecciones en Bahía Blanca: Ganadores Aparentes y Reales PDF Imprimir E-mail
Escrito por Solo Local   
Lunes, 29 de Junio de 2009 14:52
 PartidoResultado 2007  Resultado 2009
Dif. Puntos Porcentuales Variación Porcentual
     
Coalición Cívica23,78 %
7,65 %
16,13 - 67,83   %
P. Justicialista
37,32 %
20,72 %
16,6- 44,48   %
P. Victoria
12,9 %
7,90 %
5
- 38,75   %
     
Unión Pro
3,65 %
17,6 %
13,95
+ 382,19 %
UCR
4,05 %
11,86 %
7,81
+ 192,83 %
Int. Ciudadana
10,87 %
20,11 %
9,24
+   85     %
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

La matemática es exacta pero puede resultar muy engañosa. Cualquier docente de la materia sabe que un número solo no significa nada, si no se lo interpreta en un contexto. Por ejemplo, un porcentaje puede ser alto o bajo, pero depende de otro valor con el que se lo compare. En el caso de las elecciones, 20 % puede ser mucho o poco, pero todo varía si ese 20 % corresponde al mismo partido que antes obtuvo el 50 % o el 3 %. Las conclusiones, en uno y otro caso, son necesariamente diferentes. Para el caso local, los titulares insisten en mencionar que con el 20,72 % de los votos, Guillermo Quevedo, –el candidato oficialista-, ganó la elección en Bahía Blanca. Es una conclusión engañosa. En primer lugar, porque eso significa que la gran mayoría, el 79,28 % de los electores, no lo votó. Y eso que Quevedo, el candidato del intendente Cristian Breitenstein, contó con la ayuda indiscutible del aparato que le proporcionó el poder de turno.

Luego, no debe olvidarse que el oficialismo, encarnado por el Partido Justicialista que a nivel local lideran Cristian Breitenstein y Dámaso Larraburu, ganó en el 2007 por el 37,32 % de los votos, tal como se puede consultar aquí. Si se compara el número anterior con el obtenido ayer por el PJ, implica una diferencia de 16,6 puntos porcentuales, lo cual representa una disminución porcentual del 44,48 % de los votos. Del otro lado, el segundo en la lista para concejales de acuerdo con el conteo resultó ser Raúl Woscoff, de Integración Ciudadana, quien venía de obtener 10.87 % de los votos, alcanzando ahora el 20,11 %, lo cual representa una diferencia de 9,24 puntos porcentuales. Haciendo cálculos, IC obtuvo un crecimiento del 85 % en la cantidad de votos.

El otro avance ha sido el de la Unión Pro, partido que para concejales quedó tercero, con 17.6 % de los votos, siendo que en el 2007 había alcanzado el magro 3,65 %, con lo que ganó 13,95 puntos porcentuales; esto representa un incremento del 382,19 %; es decir, hubo casi 4 veces más votos para concejales de la Unión Pro, que en el 2007, cuando concurrió solo sin apoyo del PJ disidente. Lo cual , justo es decirlo, representa uno de los avances más significativos alcanzados por una lista local, en toda la historia.

En cuanto a la Coalición Cívica, que en el 2007 lideró Tunessi y obtuvo 23,78 % de los votos, ahora alcanzó con Alberto Sangre el 7,65 % de los votos, y eso representa la pérdida de 16,13 puntos porcentuales, o lo que es igual, un descenso del 67,83 % de los votos.

La Unión Cívica Radical, en cambio, salió mejor parada. Obtuvo ahora con Roberto Ursino a la cabeza 11,86 % cuando en el 2007 apenas había alcanzado el 4,05 % de los votos, es decir ganó 7,81 puntos porcentuales, que representa el 192,83 % de aumento. Esta conclusión fue poco observada pero es real.

Finalmente, otro que perdió fue el Partido de la Victoria, que Federico Susbielles lideró en el 2007 y que en esa elección alcanzó el 12,9 % de los votos. Ayer, el candidato Gustavo Mandará obtuvo 7,9 %, es decir 5 puntos porcentuales menos, o dicho de otro modo, una disminución porcentual del 38,75 %, que aún es menor a la que sufrió el oficialismo encabezado por Quevedo.

Por último, otro ganador indiscutible en la jornada de ayer fue el tres veces intendente Jaime Linares. Pero sólo en el nivel provincial. En el 2007 y para ese orden, la Coalición Cívica, reunía en Bahía Blanca el 28,8 % de los votos, llevando en la boleta a Margarita Stolbizer como candidata a gobernador, con Linares de vice. Ahora, el ex intendente obtuvo el 39,47 %, lo cual representa un aumento de 10,67 puntos porcentuales, o lo que es igual, un 37,04 % de incremento, convirtiéndose además, en el candidato más votado en la ciudad.

El sistema es a todas luces injusto. Nótese que aún con el escueto resultado del justicialismo local, obtendrá en el HCD la mayoría simple. Y el radicalismo, aún habiendo avanzado, perdió dos concejales y la primacía en el deliberativo.

La gran duda ahora, es cuanto tardará el oficialismo local en seducir al flamante bloque del Pro, integrado por Julián Lemos, Constanza Rivas Godio y Cristina Molina. Aunque tal acción no le alcanzará para lograr el sueño de la mayoría absoluta propia. 

ACTUALIZADO CON DATOS OFICIALES: 29 DE JUNI0, 15.30 HS.

Enlaces Relacionados

http://www.lanueva.com/edicion_impresa/nota/29/10/2007/7at018.html

http://www.juntaelectoral.gba.gov.ar/sistemas/junta_electoral/elechisto/resultados/2007007.pdf

 

 

Elecciones en Bahía Blanca: Ganadores Aparentes y Reales
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